As we gear up for 2024, you may be wondering what's in store for the San Diego real estate market! Armed with expert insights and data-driven analysis, we give you our take.
Inventory Dynamics
Realtor.com released an article predicting an 11% increase in supply (number of listings) in 2024! To put that into perspective, when compared to pre-pandemic averages (2017-2019), that is still 31.7% FEWER homes for sale! This means we will still have a supply shortage, which will keep competition strong.
Interest Rate Watch
This week the Feds announced there will be 3 rate decreases in 2024! HURRAY!! This will effectively increase supply as well as demand. I was featured on CBS this week talking about this exact topic, check it out here:
Interest Rate History:
| February 2023 | 5.99% |
| March 2023 | 7.1% |
| April 2023 | 6.18% |
| May 2023 | 7.14% |
| September 2023 | 7.08% |
| October 2023 | 7.92% |
| November 2023 | 7.29% |
| December 2023 | 6.95% |
A forecast from the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun, predicts the average rate in 2024 will be 6.3%.
Home prices
Based on the Realtor.com article, we should expect a 5.4% increase in prices in 2024. To keep this in perspective, this is 58% higher than pre-pandemic (2017-2019) prices!
Take note buyers & sellers….buyers who keep “waiting” will continue to “lose” out. We have buyers we are working with right now that “waited” in 2020 because they were sure prices would go down. They have finally realized that every day they continue to wait, the more money they have to spend. Now is an excellent time to buy and sell. Once interest rates continue to decrease, those who have been sitting on the fence will drive prices right back up.
Options in Today’s Market
You ALWAYS have options! Depending on your life circumstances, there are many different options available to you in Real Estate!
Sell: It’s a fantastic time to sell! Median home prices are up 12% in San Diego county year over year. And there’s even more good news, with prices projected to increase 5.4% during 2024, assuming the Feds lower interest rates.
Buy: If I were in the market to buy, I would be actively looking NOW, before the hoards of other buyers enter the spring market and before the interest rates decrease! You can always refinance later on, but it’s not possible to renegotiate your home price after purchasing.
Invest: There are also many different types of investment options when buying including 1031 exchanges, buy & holds, flips, etc. We do ALL OF THESE!
Buy & Holds
Recently I’ve been helping a client who works at Amazon, and I have spent a lot of time analyzing areas and strategies that I think would work the best for an investment rental for him. I not only pour over properties, but I analyze rental rates in the area, and use my very detailed spreadsheet to project cash flow, cap rate, and IRRs for each property. Here’s a video clip discussing it:
Pending Flips:
We have a flip listing in Poway that is under contract and closes in 3 weeks. We also have invested in a Del Mar $4,670,000 flip, which I’m proud to say is pending and will close next week! Of course, you can always start smaller, but know that at lower price points, you are competing with every other flipper in town!
Rentals
We have several rentals that will be available beginning in March. Please reach out if you know someone who needs a fully furnished rental for any reason! Click here for the most up to date information on rental availability.
We were on the news!
Watch us, alongside our favorite lender on CBS Channel 8 news where we shared our views on the market. Check it out here.
If you have any questions about this please give us a call. We LOVE this stuff.
